Recently, a classmate of mine posed the following statement;
"Do you see automated systems advancing in the near future to save developers more money? I understand that most times there needs to be human to human contact, but there has to be some way to take this to the next level. Software applications are replacing ATM's for crying out loud! I see this as another threat to humans' jobs though. I guess you just have to work in the right field." ~Jermaine Edwards
Here's some of my thoughts on the subject - what do you think?
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Eventually intuitive systems will replace most human to human interaction in the short term, making developers wallets fatter and our lives simpler. Programs will continue to get more complex as the demands of users change and technology advances. The drawback is reduction in jobs, as was experienced during the first industrial revolution when mass production changed the way everything was done, and who was no longer needed on the manufacturing floor. As you mentioned, ATM's are being replaced with iPhone apps. Eventually, I think bank branches will be replaced by full-service, online, interactive banking. We have robots that build our vehicles - one robot can do the work of 100 men in far less time; robots that perpetually clean our floors and recharge themselves when necessary; planes that can fly themselves around the world without pilot interference, etc.. I think beyond our lifetimes is when true artificial intelligence will be born, like we see in movies today. Only then do I think will human interaction become obsolete because it will not longer be necessary - an intelligent machine in our life will perform many, if not all, of the functions we perform today, leaving little left for the human to do except system maintenance and maintain physical relationships as desired. That may be an extreme example, but one that I think has a real chance of eventually becoming reality with the way technology is advancing. It is a trickle down effect - a new advancement causes a common product to become obsolete which leaves manufacturers without a product to make, distributors without a product to sell, and service providers without a means to an end. The consumer enjoys the benefit of a great product delivered quicker than ever, but the supply chain dwindles to a computer server and a delivery truck. This is a profitable arrangement for the manufacturers but leaves everyone that was in the middle stuck to reinvent themselves or close their doors.
There is also another side to this - the green effect, meaning that the reduction in effect on the environment and the effect that has on job availability. As technology advances, so too do the materials they are manufactured from. Most machines and consumables can be recycled today, or are biodegradable and non-toxic. Also, the increase in use of Internet based storage and collaboration has significantly reduced the amount of paper output, as well as reduced the quantity of laser toner/ink cartridges used, which further reduces the environmental impact. This affects the job market as well, automation has a long history of leaving people/industries jobless, such as when mass production was introduced in the early 20th Century and a lot of factory workers were replaced with machines. As technology advances we invent or refine machines to help us in our endeavors, initially as tools to enhance an experience or quicken a solution. Now, machines are seen as a necessity of life - for many to keep up with an ever evolving world, for others just to keep track of their daily lives. Whatever it is used for, humans are more dependant on machines and technology now than we every have been. Unfortunately, I think a dose of laziness is driving a lot of today's innovations, leaving consumers to sit on their couches, at their desks, or in their cars doing whatever they want, whenever they want.
As far as working in the right field, IT seems to be a big fit now and in the future. We must be mindful not to loose control though, what if god forbid every electronic system on the planet went dead and we all had to go back to doing it manually. Since business has married to technology for a while now, how many companies, and individuals for that matter, do you think could really survive in an old-fashioned world? My guess, a lot less than any of us think.
Tell me what you think, post a comment below.
-Geek
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